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About
Simulation Replay Narrative
In November 2006, Crossing the Ditch participated in a mathematical simulation. The simulation used a Race Recon's Net Vessel Movement Model (NVM2).
The following is a brief summary of some of the model outputs from three players. JC is James Castrission, JJ is Justin Jones and SV is 'Coach Steve'. The three players were given the freedom to choose their 'moves' given the same limited information that they would receive out on the Tasman. Each coloured line represents the path that each player would have taken given their decisions.
The departure point for the simulation was chosen as Sydney based on the EACs behaviour at this time in 2006.
Model Assumptions
Intensity. For simplicity, there are five different activities, each of which corresponds to a given kayak speed, energy expenditure and water requirement. The three paddling activities may also be performed with one or two paddlers which alters the other three variables again. The activities have values as follows:
Sleep. A person at sleep burns 60 cals per hour, does not drink any water and obviously does not offer the kayak any velocity. When you allocate a certain amount of time to sleep, you are only credited with sleeping for 65% of the time alllocated. This is to reflect the time to prepare for sleep, get to sleep, wake up as a result of sleeping in the ocean and ppreparing for the next paddle.
Rest. A person at rest burns 80 cals per hour and drinks 250ml water per hour to maintain hydration.
Speed (kts) |
Energy Expenditure (Cals / hour / person) |
Water Requirements (ml / hour / person) |
|
Easy - One Paddlers |
0.5 |
500 |
600 |
Easy - Two Paddlers |
1.5 |
300 |
500 |
Moderate - One Paddler |
1.0 |
600 |
720 |
Moderate - Two Paddlers |
2.5 |
400 |
600 |
Hard - One Paddler |
1.5 |
700 |
840 |
Hard - Two Paddlers |
3.0 |
500 |
700 |
Current. For simplicity the current is calculated as having 100% effect on the kayak. eg a 5kt current moving North will move the kayak 5nm in one hour. This is over simplified to model the basic effect of the current.
Wind. For simplicity the wind is calculated as having 10% effect on the kayak, eg a 10kt wind moving North will move the kayak 1nm North in one hour. This is over simplified to model that basic effect of the wind.
Direction. To keep navigation simple, the cardinal points in 16 graduations are used to indicate kayak heading.
Summary of Measures
Efficiency Value. The efficiency value is a measure of expedition efficiency. It measures the distance you achieved relative to the energy you expended to achieve that distance. The higher the efficiency value, the more efficient your expedition, ie the greater distance you achieved for a lower caloric expenditure. Importantly, the efficiency value is a raw measure and does not take into account if the direction you travelled was optimal. eg You can travel very efficiently and score highly in this category but not be any closer to the objective.
Paddle Time. A measure in decimal hours of the time you spent paddling eg 17.25 is 17 hrs and 15 minutes
Distance Covered. A measure in nautical miles of the distance from the start point for the day and the finish point for the day as the crow flies.
Distance Paddled. A measure in nautical miles of the distance you actually paddled that day
Paddle Wastage. The difference between the distance you covered and the distance you paddled. A negative value iindicates that you paddled further than you actually travelled and a positive value indicates that you travelled further than you paddled.
Energy Balance. Given a standard caloric intake of 6000 cals a day, this reflects your residual energy balance. A negative value indicates that you are expending more energy than you are intaking. A positive value indicates that you are taking more energy in that expending.
Water Requirement. This value indicates the number of litres of water each man will require given that intensity of exercise
Rest Ratio. Rest Ratio is the the percentage of time at rest (including sleep) of a 24hr period
Sleep Ratio. Sleep ratio is the percentage of time sleeping over a 24hr period
Day Seven - Friday 1 Dec 06
Efficiency Value (Nm/6000c) |
Paddle Time (Hrs Decimal) |
Distance Covered (Nm) |
Distance Paddled (Nm) |
Paddle Wastage (Nm) |
Energy Balance (Cals) |
Water Reqt (L) |
Rest Ratio |
Sleep Ratio |
JC |
50.71 |
10.75 |
47.67 |
36.66 |
11.01 |
360 |
10.60 |
55% |
27% |
JJ |
47.26 |
10.50 |
43.79 |
34.04 |
9.76 |
440 |
10.51 |
56% |
27% |
SV |
39.51 |
8.00 |
24.23 |
13.35 |
10.88 |
2320 |
7.55 |
67% |
31% |
James |
Justin |
Steve |
| 1200-1830 Sleep anchor out 1830-2000 prep (comm’s etc) 2000- 0100 Both paddle Medium E 0100- 0430 JC paddle easy JJ sleep E 0500- 0830 JJ paddle easy JC sleep E 0900- 1200 Both paddle M E |
1200-1245: Lunch Time 1245-1445: Both Paddle Moderate ESE 1445-1615: Both Paddle Easy E 1615-1745: Both Paddle Moderate E 1745-1815: Scheduled Comm, break and snack 1815-1930: Paddle Moderate ESE 1930: Para anchor out 1945-2045: Dinner and Housekeeping 2045-0000: Both Sleep 0000: Paddler 1 Position and situation check 0015-0245: Both Sleep 0245: Paddler 2 Position and situation check 0300-0545: Both Sleep 0600-0615: Scheduled Comm 0615-0700: Food, Para anchor in 0700-0900: Paddle both Moderate E 0900-0930: Break and food 0930-1200: Paddle both Moderate E |
1200-1400: Easy ENE 1400-1415: Rest, replen 1415-1615: Easy ENE 1615-1645: Comms and blog entry 1645-1715: Dinner 1715-2215: One person maintenance/watch/powernap and one person sleep in cabin 2215-0315: Maintenance and the other person sleep 0315-0515: Easy ENE 0515-0530: Rest, replen 0530-0730: Easy E 0730-0745: Rest, replen 0745-0815: Comms if needed and breakfast 0815-1200: Sleep |
Day Six - Thursday 30 Nov 06
Efficiency Value (Nm/6000c) |
Paddle Time (Hrs Decimal) |
Distance Covered (Nm) |
Distance Paddled (Nm) |
Paddle Wastage (Nm) |
Energy Balance (Cals) |
Water Reqt (L) |
Rest Ratio |
Sleep Ratio |
JC |
54.08 |
11.50 |
53.00 |
41.62 |
11.38 |
120 |
10.90 |
52% |
24% |
JJ |
71.25 |
10.50 |
61.22 |
49.98 |
11.24 |
845 |
9.22 |
56% |
23% |
SV |
74.29 |
8.00 |
55.47 |
30.30 |
25.17 |
1520 |
8.35 |
67% |
31% |
James |
Justin |
Steve |
| 1200-1730 Sleep anchor out 1800-1900 prep (comm’s etc) 1900- 0100 Both paddle Medium E 0100- 0430 JC paddle easy JJ sleep E 0500- 0830 JJ paddle easy JC sleep E 0900- 1200 Both paddle M E |
1200-1245: Lunch Time 1245-1445: Both Paddle Moderate NE 1445-1615: Both Paddle Easy NE 1615-1745: Both Paddle Moderate NE 1745-1815: Scheduled Comm, break and snack 1815-1945: Paddle Moderate NE 1945: Para anchor out 2000-2100: Dinner and Housekeeping 2100-0000: Both Sleep 0000: Paddler 1 Position and situation check 0015-0245: Both Sleep 0245: Paddler 2 Position and situation check 0300-0545: Both Sleep 0600-0615: Scheduled Comm 0615-0700: Food, Para anchor in 0700-0900: Paddle both Moderate NE 0900-0930: Break and food 0930-1200: Paddle both Moderate ENE |
1200-1400: Hard NE 1400-1415: Rest, replen 1415-1615: Easy NE 1615-1645: Comms and blog entry 1645-1715: Dinner 1715-2215: One person maintenance/watch/powernap and one person sleep in cabin 2215-0315: Maintenance and the other person sleep 0315-0515: Hard NE 0515-0530: Rest, replen 0530-0730: Easy NE 0730-0745: Rest, replen 0745-0815: Comms if needed and breakfast 0815-1200: Sleep |
Average Hrs Paddled |
Average Distance Paddled (nm) |
Average Distance Travelled (nm) |
Average Speed When Paddling |
Energy Balance |
Average Water Reqt |
Average Hrs Rest |
Average Hrs Sleep |
|
JC |
12.35 |
33.71 |
42.99 |
2.73 |
-1135.00 |
10.89 |
11.65 |
5.69 |
JJ |
10.95 |
26.15 |
45.09 |
2.39 |
2440.00 |
9.95 |
13.05 |
4.32 |
SV |
12.50 |
33.54 |
43.58 |
2.68 |
925.00 |
9.96 |
11.50 |
5.15 |
The Sim is progressing really well and I hope that you are all learning some valuable lessons and critically reviwing how you will do business out in the Tasman. If the Sim isn't going as planned you have to remember that this is a SIMULATION based on the assumptions that we agreed on together. The trip may be vastly different in reality. The purpose of the activity is to simulate the expedition and prompt questions and contingencies.
JC. Mate your start has really hurt your average performance. It was the long periods on day one when you had only one guy paddling that blew your energy and efficiency out of the water. You are spending a lot more time than JJ paddling and a little les than SV which reflects the time you have spent 'catching up' in the last few days. Your Average Distance Paddled figure reflects that you chose the shortest route. Your average speed is about right but that first day blew your energy balance out leaving you with the energy deficit you have right now. You are well rested and the closest to the 6hrs budgeted sleep.
JJ. The longest route but more often than not, the most efficient. You are paddling almost 1.5hrs less than the other two each day reflecting your approach of long shared sleeps in strong currents. This has really paid off when you calculate the cost/benefit ratio of paddling, even easy, in strong favourable currents. Your average distance paddled and speed reflect the fact that you did take the longest route which over the past few days has had the strongest currents keeping your average speed up. All that sleeping has saved a lot of energy expediture leaving you with almost half a days surplus. Your water consumtpion is marginally lower. You rest a lot more than the other two but have been getting only 4.5hrs sleep a night on average. This reflects your decision to post someone on watch for the first two days whilst closer to the coast.
SV. Paddles more than anyone, you love it! You have maintained the 2hr/15min work/rest pattern for some time and it is giving you consistent results and more predictability about future performance. You always tend to be the median result although you have paddled further than the other two. JJ has travelled further however. You have the lowest average speed but this reflects more of your decisions to Paddle Easier over the last few days. Good amount of rest and 45mins short of the target 6hrs sleep a night.
Efficiency Value (Nm/6000c) |
Paddle Time (Hrs Decimal) |
Distance Covered (Nm) |
Distance Paddled (Nm) |
Paddle Wastage (Nm) |
Energy Balance (Cals) |
Water Reqt (L) |
Rest Ratio |
Sleep Ratio |
JC |
57.67 |
11.50 |
56.52 |
44.27 |
12.25 |
120 |
10.90 |
52% |
24% |
JJ |
64.39 |
10.75 |
56.18 |
9.49 |
46.69 |
765 |
9.33 |
55% |
22% |
SV |
70.29 |
10.00 |
55.30 |
34.21 |
21.08 |
1280 |
8.79 |
58% |
22% |
James |
Justin |
Steve |
| 1200-1730 Sleep anchor out 1800-1900 prep (comm’s etc) 1900- 0100 Both paddle Medium E 0100- 0430 JC paddle easy JJ sleep ENE 0500- 0830 JJ paddle easy JC sleep ENE 0900- 1200 Both paddle M E |
1200-1245: Lunch Time 1245-1445: Both Paddle Moderate E 1445-1615: Both Paddle Easy E 1615-1745: Both Paddle Moderate E 1745-1815: Scheduled Comm, break and snack 1815-2015: Paddle Moderate ENE 2015: Para anchor out 2030-2130: Dinner and Housekeeping 2130-0000: Both Sleep 0000: Paddler 1 Position and situation check 0015-0245: Both Sleep 0245: Paddler 2 Position and situation check 0300-0545: Both Sleep 0600-0615: Scheduled Comm 0615-0700: Food, Para anchor in 0700-0900: Paddle both Moderate ENE 0900-0930: Break and food 0930-1200: Paddle both Moderate E |
1200-1400: Mod ENE 1400-1415: Rest 1415-1615: Easy E 1615-1630: Anchor out(if move faster in current with it), comms and blog entry 1630-1700: Both have dinner 1700-2230: Maintenance/watch/powernap (in paddle seat) and one person sleep in cabin 2230-0330: Maintenance and the other person sleep 0330-0530: Anchor in, moderate ENE 0530-0545: Rest, replen 0545-0745: Moderate NE 0745-0800: Rest, replen 0800-0900: Comms if needed and breakfast 0900-1100: Easy ENE 1100-1200: Rest, replen |
We just got a full image through on the sat phone to give you an appreciation for the currents. Your position is indicated by the black dot. The good news is the hard part is almost over. The Bad news is, had you left today, you would have been pushed a lot further south to begin with and potentially added a few extra days on to the trip |
 |
Efficiency Value (Nm/6000c) |
Paddle Time (Hrs Decimal) |
Distance Covered (Nm) |
Distance Paddled (Nm) |
Paddle Wastage (Nm) |
Energy Balance (Cals) |
Water Reqt (L) |
Rest Ratio |
Sleep Ratio |
JC |
56.65 |
10.50 |
55.37 |
40.81 |
14.56 |
135 |
11.21 |
56% |
26% |
JJ |
61.15 |
10.75 |
53.36 |
38.24 |
15.12 |
765 |
9.33 |
55% |
22% |
SV |
55.68 |
9.75 |
44.68 |
31.22 |
13.46 |
1185 |
8.87 |
59% |
22% |
James |
Justin |
Steve |
| 1200-1830- sleep anchor out 1900-2000-prep (comm’s etc) 2000-0100 both Paddle E medium 0100-0430 JC paddle easy E JJ Sleep 0500- 0830 JJ paddle easy JC sleep 0900-1200 both paddle med ESE |
1200-1245: Lunch Time 1245-1445: Both Paddle Moderate E 1445-1615: Both Paddle Easy E 1615-1745: Both Paddle Moderate E 1745-1815: Scheduled Comm, break and snack 1815-2015: Paddle Moderate E 2015: Para anchor out 2030-2130: Dinner and Housekeeping 2130-0000: Both Sleep 0000: Paddler 1 Position and situation check 0015-0245: Both Sleep 0245: Paddler 2 Position and situation check 0300-0545: Both Sleep 0600-0615: Scheduled Comm 0615-0700: Food, Para anchor in 0700-0900: Paddle both Moderate E 0900-0930: Break and food 0930-1200: Paddle both Moderate ENE |
1200-1215: Rest, replen 1215-1400: Hard SE 1400-1415: Rest 1415-1615: Easy E 1615-1630: Anchor out(if move faster in current with it), comms and blog entry 1630-1700: Both have dinner 1700-2230: Maintenance/watch/powernap (in paddle seat) and one person sleep in cabin 2230-0330: Maintenance and the other person sleep 0330-0530: Hard NE 0530-0545: Rest, replen 0545-0745: Easy E 0745-0800: Rest, replen 0800-0900: Comms if needed and breakfast 0900-1100: Easy E 1100-1200: Rest, replen |
Efficiency Value (Nm/6000c) |
Paddle Time (Hrs Decimal) |
Distance Covered (Nm) |
Distance Paddled (Nm) |
Paddle Wastage (Nm) |
Energy Balance (Cals) |
Water Reqt (L) |
Rest Ratio |
Sleep Ratio |
JC |
55.40 |
12.00 |
58.17 |
51.18 |
6.99 |
-300 |
11.62 |
50% |
24% |
JJ |
61.30 |
9.50 |
52.21 |
32.49 |
19.72 |
890 |
9.23 |
60% |
17% |
SV |
70.49 |
11.75 |
57.33 |
38.76 |
18.58 |
1120 |
8.84 |
51% |
33% |
James |
Justin |
Steve |
| 1200-1530- sleep anchor out 1800-1900-prep (comm’s etc) 1900-0100 both Paddle medium E 0100-0430 JC paddle easy E JJ Sleep 0500- 0830 JJ paddle easy JC sleep 0900-1200 both paddle med ESE |
1200-1245: Lunch Time 1245-1615: Both Paddle Moderate NE 1615-1745: Both Paddle Hard NE 1745: Para anchor out 1800-1845: Scheduled Comm and dinner 1845-2015: Both Sleep 2015-2315: Paddler 1 On watch Paddler 2 Sleep 2315-0215: Paddler 2 On watch Paddler 1 Sleep 0215-0400: Paddler 1 On watch Paddler 2 Sleep 0400-0545: Paddler 2 On watch Paddler 1 Sleep 0600-0615: Scheduled Comm 0615-0700: Food, Para anchor in 0700-0900: Paddle both Moderate ENE 0900-0930: Break and food 0930-1200: Paddle both Moderate ENE |
1200-1215: Rest 1215-1400: Mod ESE 1400-1415: Rest 1415-1615: Easy ESE 1615-1630: Rest 1630-1830: Easy ESE 1830-2330: Rest, dinner and sleep (hopefully go for a ride in the current) 2330-0130: Mod ESE 0130-0145: Rest 0145-0345: Easy E 0345-0400: Rest 0400-0500: Easy E 0500-1100: Rest, breakfast, sleep 1100-1200: Hard E |
The currents have been very peculiar over the past week with the EAC moving North at times and the anti-clockwise washing machine moving south as well. The Clockwise washing machine to the east is also gaining some strength with a strong southerly puush on the opposite side. We really need to start developing concepts for communicating this picture in voice and SMS. You should be able to see very faint dots that represent your positions. The only other time we will refer to these diagrams is in the simulation debrief when we do a post-mortem. |
 |
Efficiency Value (Nm/6000c) |
Paddle Time (Hrs Decimal) |
Distance Covered (Nm) |
Distance Paddled (Nm) |
Paddle Wastage (Nm) |
Energy Balance (Cals) |
Water Reqt (L) |
Rest Ratio |
Sleep Ratio |
JC |
37.41 |
11.50 |
29.92 |
12.72 |
17.21 |
1200 |
5.45 |
52% |
26% |
JJ |
52.39 |
8.75 |
41.22 |
24.05 |
17.17 |
1280 |
8.83 |
64% |
16% |
SV |
34.14 |
13.00 |
37.44 |
33.32 |
4.12 |
-580 |
10.69 |
46% |
25% |
James |
Justin |
Steve |
| 12-1 lunch break 13-1700 both paddle NE (snack every 1.5 hr) 1700-1800 comm's and sced clean bodies, prep, relax set para anchor 1900-2000 dinner 2000-0400 JC & JJ sleep 0430- 0530 both paddle ENE 0530- 0600 breakfast 0630-1030 both paddle E 1030-1200 sleep |
1200-1300: Lunch and break 1300-1745: Both Paddle moderate E (to ensure that we get firmly in the current) – snack every 1.5hrs 1745: Para Anchor out 1800-1815: Scheduled Comm and snack 1815-2115: Paddler 1 On watch Paddler 2 Sleep 2115-2145: Changeover and dinner time, position check 2145-0045: Paddler 2 On watch Paddler 1 Sleep 0045-0315: Paddler 1 On watch Paddler 2 Sleep 0315-0545: Paddler 2 On watch Paddler 1 Sleep 0600-0615: Scheduled Comm 0615-0700: Food 0700-0900: Paddle both Moderate E 0900-0930: Break and food 0930-1200: Paddle both Moderate E |
1200-1400: Mod E 1400-1415: Rest 1415-1615: Mod E 1615-1630: Rest 1630-1830: Mod ENE 1830-2330: Rest, dinner and sleep (hopefully go for a ride in the current) 2330-0130: Hard NE 0130-0145: Rest 0145-0345: Mod E 0345-0400: Rest 0400-0600: Hard E 0600-1100: Rest, breakfast, sleep 1100-1200: Hard E |
Efficiency Value (Nm/6000c) |
Paddle Time (Hrs Decimal) |
Distance Covered (Nm) |
Distance Paddled (Nm) |
Paddle Wastage (Nm) |
Energy Balance (Cals) |
Water Reqt (L) |
Rest Ratio |
Sleep Ratio |
JC |
10.84 |
16.25 |
14.98 |
19.57 |
-4.59 |
-2290 |
15.27 |
32% |
18% |
JJ |
18.58 |
15.00 |
22.48 |
26.49 |
-4.01 |
-1260 |
13.02 |
38% |
14% |
SV |
17.20 |
18.00 |
23.17 |
30.19 |
-7.02 |
-2080 |
12.61 |
25% |
6% |
James |
Justin |
Steve |
| 12-16: Paddle easy out to heads 16-19.30: NNE Mod 19.30-24.00 : JJ go to cabin, prep meal,JJ sleep 20-24, jc paddle (mod) 24.00-0600: JC sleep JJ paddle 0630-0700: breakfast 0700-0930: JJ sleep Jc paddle mod NNE 0930-1200: JC &JJ Paddle mod NE |
1200-1400: Paddle both Moderate harbour 1400-1415: Break 1415-1700: Paddle both Moderate ENE 1700-1830: Meal Time and sched comm 1830-2000: Both Paddle Moderate ENE 2000-2015: Paddler 1 Food Paddler 2 Sleep 2015-2215: Paddler 1 moderate Paddler 2 Sleep 2215-2245: Paddler 1 Food Paddler 2 Sleep 2245-0100: Paddler 1 Easy Paddler 2 Sleep 0100-0115: Paddler 2 Food Paddler 1 Sleep 0115-0315: Paddler 2 moderate Paddler 1 Sleep 0315-0345: Paddler 2 Food Paddler 1 Sleep 0345-0600: Paddler 2 Easy Paddler 1 Sleep 0600-0700: Sched comms and Meal time 0700-0900: Paddle both Moderate ENE 0900-0930: Break and food 0930-1200: Paddle both Moderate ENE |
12-14: Paddle hard NE 14-1415: Rest, regroup 1415-1615: Paddle hard NE 1615-1630: Rest, regroup 1630-1830: Paddle moderate NE 1830-1930: Anchor out, rest, eat, drift south 1930-2130: Paddle hard NE 2130-2145: Rest, regroup 2145-2345: Paddle hard NE 2345-0200: Anchor out, sleep, expect to drift south, test and adjust 0200-0400: Paddle moderate E 0400-0415: Rest, regroup 0415-0615: Paddle moderate E 0615-0630: Rest, regroup 0630-1030: Paddle slow NE 1030-1200: Anchor out, rest, eat, get out of the sun |
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